REGIME-CHANGE IN IRAN?
At time of posting: (January 6, 2026)
- Anti-government protests inside Iran
- Also pro-government demonstrations
- Initial peaceful protest become riots
- Mosques, hospitals, ambulances, fire engines and other infrastructure attacked by rioters and armed dissident groups orchestrated by Israel and Starlink
- USA-ISRAEL mobilizing military outside Iran
- Russia evacuating its citizens from Tel Aviv
- Australia has told its citizens to leave Iran
- USA pulls embassy staff from their embassy in Israel.
The situation appears ominous.
What’s going on?
February 24, 2026
The conflict does not seem inevitable - but only if reason prevails over hubris in the mind of 1 man who turns 80 on June 14th
John Mearsheimer: Why a U.S. Strike on Iran Could Spiral Out of Control
What are the likely consequences of U.S. military action against Iran. In today's episode, John Mearsheimer argues that even a limited strike could trigger dangerous escalation. Public opinion, especially among younger Americans, has shifted against Israel. There is very little public support for a war with Iran, and there are deep divisions within Trump’s MAGA base on the issue. Trump’s instincts are to avoid dangerous escalation and forever wars. And U.S. Sunni allies, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states, oppose a U.S. war with Iran. And yet we are heading into another U.S. war on Iran. Why? Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: Read Tom's Substack: Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and Sky News, where he has been a regular presenter and …
Switzerland with Tom Switzer
February 21, 2026
Conflict appears imminent and inevitable
We hope God is on the side of Iran
Twitter: Zlatti71
> US Masses Air Power: Hundreds of Warplanes Positioned as Iran Tensions Rise At least 500 US military aircraft are now concentrated across Europe and the Middle East, with more than 100 planes arriving this week alone amid expectations of a possible conflict with Iran. Such a… pic.twitter.com/Kpmy6oYcR9 [https://t.co/Kpmy6oYcR9] — Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) February 21, 2026 [https://twitter.com/Zlatti_71/status/2025186774209757348?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterAPOCALYPSE ANY DAY NOW
February 20, 2026
Iran must not wait for the “shock and awe” US-Israel attack believed to happen in the next day or two.
IRAN would be well advised to pre-empt with Al all out attack on US military
MONOLOGUE: Opening the gates of hell
We're two to three days from the US onslaught on Iran. What will Russia and China do? This war is for Israel. Again. And civil conflict looms in US Follow #MOATS 527 #georgegalloway #Iran #US #Israel #Russia #China
George Galloway
Countdown: February 17, 2026
Twitter: MenchOsint
> One third of the U.S. Navy fleet deployed for Iran. https://t.co/TMDIbFK8tS [https://t.co/TMDIbFK8tS] pic.twitter.com/VX5qhzQnu7 [https://t.co/VX5qhzQnu7] — MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) February 16, 2026 [https://twitter.com/MenchOsint/status/2023290054928404958?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterFebruary 15, 2026
Col Douglas Macgregor Could Iran’s Air Defenses Stop a U.S. Air Campaign?
THE FACE OF WARUpdate February 14, 2026
Scott Ritter Iran Says Missiles Are the Only Thing Keeping It Alive
THE FACE OF WAR
Dire Prediction on Saturday 7 February 2026
Will the US strike Iran on Monday?
Are the negotiations simply the art of deception to effect a surprise attack?
The world is on tenterhooks.
Twitter: IntelSky
> "The Doctrine of Deception": Trump Replays the "May 2025" Scenario... The "Open Saturday" Trap Precedes the "Firewall" on Monday (7 New NOTAMs) — Talal Nahle Updated Report (Saturday - February 7 | 08:33 UTC): While the world sleeps, lulled by the silken promises of "good… pic.twitter.com/OQcqak8cbt [https://t.co/OQcqak8cbt] — IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) February 7, 2026 [https://twitter.com/Intel_Sky/status/2020045722796671382?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterShow comments 11–20
The mainstream view
Link
https://apnews.com/article/ali-khamenei-supreme-leader-iran-war-israel-us-1da18e4d4047d78001103429d8e3eb36As at January 26, 2026
US military moves Navy, Air Force assets to the Middle East: What to know
Trump says US ‘armada’ is heading towards the Gulf, raising fears of a military escalation in the region.
Al Jazeera EnglishOMG 100,000 in London?
Are these only Iranians who fled the revolution in 1979?
Or, does the crowd consist of Jewish and Christian Zionists urged on by Israel?
Twitter: Nicholas Lissack
> It was the honour of my life to speak before 100,000 extraordinary Iranian patriots outside Downing Street. Khamenei will fall. Pahlavi will return. Iran will be free. Here is my full speech. pic.twitter.com/0ZB5ayjLm0 [https://t.co/0ZB5ayjLm0] — Nicholas Lissack (@NicholasLissack) February 1, 2026 [https://twitter.com/NicholasLissack/status/2018020587415761223?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
Twitter
Link
https://youtube.com/shorts/XVtJ1aZ1iAk?si=KwiYcs8Rw2YYPTEeShow comments 21–30
Twitter: Douglas Macgregor
> BREAKING: Massive military buildup in the Middle East, US strikes on Iran look to be imminent. — Douglas Macgregor (@DougAMacgregor) January 11, 2026 [https://twitter.com/DougAMacgregor/status/2010163577437729272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterElina Xenophontos has made it her life’s work to study imperialism through the lens of macroeconomics and Marxism.
Many geopolitical analysts believe the final victory of the Vietnamese people over US imperialism (and before that from French colonialism) was a result of the understanding of the root causes of these phenomena gained through the study of Marxist economic theory and the concept of national sovereignty and hence nationalism.
It would appear that due to this understanding, the Venezuelan people might be better intellectually equipped to resist US imperialism than the Iranian people who are stuck with a system that does not separate Church & State
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YouTubeInsurrection in Iran is clearly carried out by terrorist agents of Israel.
It appears to be orchestrated using the same playbook to overturn Assad in Syria
Twitter: Arya - آریا
> 🇮🇷| Mayor of Tehran giving statistics on last night’s terrorist attacks in Tehran: • 2 hospitals and medical centers were attacked. • Economic infrastructure was targeted, including attacks on 26 banks. • 25 mosques were attacked and set on fire. • Basij bases and police… https://t.co/geD0rscUfs [https://t.co/geD0rscUfs] pic.twitter.com/oyXaZ9kJaL [https://t.co/oyXaZ9kJaL] — Arya - آریا (@AryJeay) January 9, 2026 [https://twitter.com/AryJeay/status/2009582280004518206?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterUSA pulls staff from embassy in Israel?
US Pulled Embassy Staff - Israel’s Escalation Hit Limits
The US has pulled embassy staff from Israel and Lebanon, so is that an admission that Israel’s escalations are no longer containable? Right, so the US has pulled embassy staff out of Israel and Lebanon. Not a statement, not a warning, not a briefing — people physically moved. So why have they done that then unless something fundamental has already changed? Because governments don’t do that unless they think things have spun beyond their control. Israel is still striking Lebanon. Hezbollah still hasn’t responded yet. Iran has already said talk now counts as action as Israel continue the smack talk. And Washington, the same Washington that keeps pretending this is all manageable, has suddenly decided its own people shouldn’t now be standing too close to it. So what’s changed that we aren’t being told about, because Israel’s attitude towards Iran and Lebanon doesn’t seem to have changed. Well something must have, because the US isn’t safely on the sidelines, and all the “nothing to see …
KernowDamoThere are conflicting reports about anti government and pro government protests in Iran. What do reputable commentators say about the probability of Iran collapsing into anarchy and civil war?
Answer from Chinese AI app DeepSeek
Reputable commentators on Iran offer conflicting analyses, but most are skeptical that the current protests will lead to immediate state collapse or civil war. Instead, they describe a system under severe stress with an uncertain future.
🔍 Contrasting Commentator Perspectives
Here are the main analytical frameworks used by experts to assess the situation:
Perspective: A Society Under Siege, Not Revolution
· Key Proponents: Academic economists and researchers.
· Main Argument: Protests are primarily a desperate call for economic relief from a middle class devastated by international sanctions and government mismanagement, not a coherent push for political overthrow. Sanctions create instability but also a "rally-around-the-flag" effect that ironically reduces the immediate risk of organized civil war or coups.
· Assessment of Collapse: Low immediate probability. The crisis is seen as a symptom of economic warfare, which tends to polarize society and weaken reformist elements rather than cleanly topple the state.
Perspective: A Regime Facing Existential Pressures
· Key Proponents: Regional analysts and journalists.
· Main Argument: The regime is facing a "perfect storm": severe economic crisis, a populace emboldened by military vulnerability after recent attacks, and widening protests that have evolved from economic complaints to anti-government chants. Some protesters believe the regime is at its weakest point and are actively seeking its end.
· Assessment of Collapse: Uncertain but a growing crisis of legitimacy. The combination of internal dissent and external military threats poses the most significant challenge to regime survival in years, making some form of major change more conceivable, even if not inevitable.
Perspective: State Prioritizing Survival Through Coercion
· Key Proponents: Security analysts and protest monitoring groups.
· Main Argument: The state retains powerful tools of control. The security establishment frames protests as foreign-backed unrest, justifying harsh crackdowns. The regime can still deploy force to suppress dissent and is actively preparing for potential external conflict, indicating it is not in terminal decay.
· Assessment of Collapse: Low short-term probability. The state's willingness and ability to use coercive force, combined with a divided opposition, makes a sudden collapse into anarchy unlikely.
💎 Conclusion
Most commentators do not foresee an imminent collapse into anarchy or civil war. The consensus is that while the Iranian regime faces one of its most severe tests due to combined economic, social, and security pressures, it currently retains the coercive capacity and institutional unity to survive in the short term. The more likely outcome is a prolonged period of severe instability, deepening the divide between state and society.
To better understand the forces at play, would you like a deeper look at the specific economic grievances driving the protests or the regional security tensions (like the shadow war with Israel) that commentators say are shaping the government's response?
Show comments 31–40
This is how the Balkanization of Syria started in 2011. Iran may be more resistant to these type of engineered protests and anarchy
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/20084187715731297…
Twitter: Mario Nawfal
> 🚨🇮🇷 IRAN PROTESTS ESCALATE, 35 DEAD AND 1,200 ARRESTED NATIONWIDE Protests across Iran continued into their ninth day, with new video from the city of Sari showing demonstrators damaging regime vehicles and confronting security forces. Footage circulating online shows crowds… https://t.co/jVcEvxkcZR [https://t.co/jVcEvxkcZR] pic.twitter.com/3z0zGlNWnz [https://t.co/3z0zGlNWnz] — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) January 6, 2026 [https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2008418771573129700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterTwitter: Arya - آریا
> 🇮🇷| Video exclusively sent to me: Iranian people en masse have taken it to the street in Qom, to condemn the rioters. This protest alone consisted of a couple thousand according to the person who took these footages. Qom has seen some violent terrorist activities in the last… pic.twitter.com/XvvqdFXy29 [https://t.co/XvvqdFXy29] — Arya - آریا (@AryJeay) January 5, 2026 [https://twitter.com/AryJeay/status/2008241148410913254?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
TwitterShow comments 41–47
Twitter: George Papadopoulos
> 🚨🇬🇷 GREECE SHUTS DOWN ITS ENTIRE AIRSPACE: Greece completely closed its airspace after what’s being called a “failure of all communication systems.” It’s a total lockdown, no flights in, and no flights out. Full-scale national airspace closures almost never happen unless… pic.twitter.com/oCnsjmup8s [https://t.co/oCnsjmup8s] — George Papadopoulos (@GeorgePapa19) January 5, 2026 [https://twitter.com/GeorgePapa19/status/2008303208792314221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
Twitter