✂️ LET'S CUT THE BULLSHIT ✂️

As of 9 April 2026, he Strait of Hormuz is still closed and Israel has escalated it's own bombing campaign in Lebanon.

Trump has changed his tone. No more strkes on Iran and no more foul mouthed rants. The threat to end Iranian civilization has not materialised despite his demand that they "open the fuckin' Strait" being ignored. Trump doesn't really care much about the Strait or the enriched uranium. The real negotiations with Iran were in relation to China. A deal was struck. We'll never know the true nature of that deal.

The ceasefire deal is nonsense. It's not even clear what the agreed terms were. Even the concise statement by the PM of Pakistan has been repudiated by Israel.

The problem we face in the world is not determined by any individual. We need to stop being brainwashed by political marketing and PR. The so-called leaders of various countries involved in this war are not really in charge of anything. They make themselves look like clowns on a daily basis. Decisions are made by faceless people behind the scenes. Israel is following an expansionist agenda which is wicked but rational. Iran is doing well because they are going to get money from shipping AND sanctions relief which brings them back into the global economy.

America is the country which seems to have done the worst from this war, unless you factor in that America is an Empire. Empires often do things which look counter-productive, but the real achievments of Empires cannot be measured by the standards of normal countries. When America "loses" a war it does not necessarily become weaker - I cite Vietnam as a working example. 

Iran is not a threat to America, and never has been. China is a threat. America "losing" this war actually makes China weaker. There is and always has been a back door relationship between America and Iran. That relationship has been re-affirmed and strengthened as a result of this war. Iran's ties with China have been weakened.

Iran is not going to defend Hezbollah in Lebanon. They are going in a different direction now. 

Two weeks from now you will see a new global order emerging, with Iran partnering with the US. China will be thwarted. Israel will have effectively expanded its territories. Hezbollah will be screwed. The Gulf states will all be better off and will each get a slice of the new "shipping fees". The price of oil will remain elevated for a long while but stocks will rally and the overall economic mood will flip optimistic. 

I'm a realist. I'm not motivated by political affiliations or ideologies. I just see it the way it is.