IN RETROSPECT: 2020 SPECULATION ABOUT US-IRAN RELATIONS 

It is always instructive to read earlier speculation about the future of USA-Iran relations, written without the benefit of hindsight.   That's an impossible task, for the future by definition is unknown.  It can only be guessed at, using attempts at induction and deduction. 

Those who turn out to have made predictions that actually come to pass, develop a following and credibility.    Such as, for example,  Alex Jones who predicted on July 25, 2001 - almost 4 months before the event - an attack on the Twin Towers in New Your City, referencing Osama bid Laden.   Of course he did not have foreknowledge, but just got lucky with his wild speculation.       

Here's a very good analysis of the Iran situation by this platform's commentator Winston Smith, done in January 2020, after the successful killing of General Qasem Soleimani by US forces.  Six years later there was a major war between Iran and USA, not predicted.   

But war by USrael against Iran has been feared for years.   Fearing a war is only slightly different than actually predicting the occurrance of a war.  Delusional people fear things that are not real, such as extinction caused by climate change.

I remember in 2006 there was a lot of fear expressed on the coming war against Iran.    Seymour Hersh published high-profile reports in early 2006 that the George Bush administration was actively drawing up target lists and moving clandestine combat troops into Iran.   

It is difficult to untangle the truth of the predictions at the time.   What we know is that theories of secret dealings between the USA and Iran turned out not to be aimed at future peaceful coexistance as Winston suggested in his post. 

https://5ep.net/stories/is-there-a-secret-deal-bet…